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Russia plans to launch its most recent rocket, the Soyuz-5, for the first time before the end of the year. Dmitry Bakanov, head of Roscosmos, confirmed the rocket’s maiden launch schedule in an interview with state media TASS.

“Yes, we are planning on December,” he told TASS. “Everything is ready.”

If the launch takes place as planned, the Soyuz-5 will launch from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. It will be the first flight of a new rocket after over a decade of development. Roscosmos plans for several demonstration launches, with officials saying full service could be some years away, not before 2028.

A Soviet Legacy for a New Age

Soyuz-5, also known as Irtysh, does not present a revolutionary design. The rocket is more of a hybrid between old Soviet-era technology and modern Russian manufacturing.

Development on the rocket dates back to 2016, but engineers have largely repurposed designs from previous models. The key difference is in where these designs are made. In the past, Russia has imported rocket components from Ukraine.

Zenit-2, a launch vehicle, is one example. Developed in the 1980s by Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in Dnipro, Ukraine, Zenit flew its first mission in the 1990s and remained in service until the 2010s. Its first and second stages were manufactured in Ukraine, but the main engine, the RD-171, was Russian-made and built by NPO Energomash.

Russia and Ukraine have managed to maintain cooperation in this area even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. But ties severed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By late 2023, Russia had even bombed the Ukrainian factory where Zenit rockets were once produced.

Soyuz-5 is a larger Zenit with all of its parts manufactured in Russia. In this sense, the new rocket ends the long reliance of Russia on Ukrainian parts.

The Soyuz-5 is a medium-lift launch vehicle that can put up to 17 metric tons into low-Earth orbit. Compared to Zenit-2, the Soyuz-5 has larger fuel tanks and can carry more weight.

The new rocket’s most noteworthy design element is its RD-171MV main engine. The current iteration of the RD-171 is a more modernized version of the earlier Soviet design that was part of the Energia program. Energia was the rocket that launched the Buran space shuttle. The RD-171MV is also a successor to the RD-171, the engine that originally powered the Zenit rocket.

Where earlier models were fitted with Ukrainian-made components, the RD-171MV has none of these. It uses kerosene and liquid oxygen as fuel, which then gives off thrust. To be precise, it can produce more than three times the thrust of one Space Shuttle main engine. By some measures, it is the most powerful liquid-fueled rocket engine in existence.

In contrast with some of its competitors, Soyuz-5 is an expendable rocket. A significant number of launch vehicles being used these days are built for reuse. SpaceX’s Falcon 9, for instance, can return from space and land. This places Soyuz-5 at a disadvantage when it comes to cost efficiency and competitive pricing.

The Soyuz-5’s Importance for Russia

Roscosmos sees the new rocket as a replacement for two of its rockets: Zenit and Proton-M. The move allows Russia to build launch vehicles without the need for any foreign assistance.

Russian space budgets have taken a hit in the last few years. The war in Ukraine has consumed resources that could have otherwise been spent on space projects. In that context, bringing Soyuz-5 to the launch pad represents a major achievement for Russia.

In that sense, the Soyuz-5 can be seen as a placeholder project. It keeps the industry alive and operational, but without going much further. The more significant development would be the Soyuz-7, which is also known as the Amur project. The latter vehicle features a reusable first stage and methane-fueled engines. If built, it could potentially offer serious competition to other modern launch vehicles.

The problem is that the Amur has a long development history but keeps being delayed. The maiden flight of this rocket is now not expected before 2030. Soyuz-5 is a more realistic project that could remain relevant for at least the rest of the decade.

It is also unclear whether Soyuz-5 will find customers in the commercial space launch market. As it is now, the market is largely dominated by SpaceX. Chinese launch providers have also managed to carve out a growing market for themselves.

Both offer cheap, reusable rockets that can outcompete Roscosmos in some cases. Russia still uses Soyuz-2 for crewed missions and Angara rockets for heavy payloads. But neither has managed to significantly draw in foreign business.

If Russia is to make the Soyuz-5 a success on the commercial market, it will have to offer reliable, low-cost services. This is an area where it is likely to have a tough time competing with other space launch providers.

The Road Ahead

The upcoming demonstration flight of Soyuz-5 will be a significant event in itself. If the rocket launches successfully in December, it would be a powerful signal that Russia can still produce space hardware despite sanctions and budget constraints.

The Soyuz-5 is not expected to set new records in any area of space flight. It might, however, have a certain symbolic meaning for Roscosmos: independence, continuity, and survival in a difficult age.

For now, attention will be on Baikonur, the site of the launch. The Soyuz-5 will then either fly or be postponed. If the former happens, then it will be a launch that looks to the future but is made out of the pages of the past.