- calendar_today August 25, 2025
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Germany, France and the United Kingdom are on track to trigger the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran in the coming days, three European officials told CNN on Wednesday.
As soon as Thursday, European powers are expected to activate a process formally known as “snapback” of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. European leaders want Tehran to use the 30-day period before UN sanctions are back in place to return to serious negotiations, allow their facilities to be inspected and take steps to return to compliance with their nuclear obligations.
But Iran has threatened harsh retaliation if sanctions return, escalating the risk of instability in a country just emerging from a recent war.
Snapback mechanism to expire
The “snapback” provision is part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), allowing for the reimposition of UN sanctions if Iran is found to be in violation of the deal. The JCPOA gives members the authority to trigger the mechanism, which expires in October.
Iran has since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA under former President Donald Trump pushed the boundaries of its nuclear program beyond the deal’s limits, and the return of UN sanctions could now end it. Tehran has continued to insist its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, but inspectors and analysts say its capacity is nearing weapons-grade levels.
“Going back to the original JCPOA would be almost impossible,” Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Wednesday.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who spoke to his European counterparts this week as the Europeans set the snapback process in motion, said Wednesday that this decision marked “the end of the road” for negotiations and that “snapback is a very powerful piece of leverage on the Iranian regime.”
Inspectors returned
Iran’s parliament passed a law earlier this month that effectively ended cooperation with international inspectors. That law was passed amid the ratcheting up of regional tensions with Israel and the ongoing negotiations with Europe.
The IAEA has teams on the ground again in Iran, Grossi confirmed Wednesday, including the Bushehr nuclear power plant, despite Iran’s announcement that it would halt cooperation.
“Today we are inspecting Bushehr,” Grossi told reporters in Washington, DC. “We are continuing the conversation so that we can go to all places, including the facilities that have been attacked.”
The IAEA’s safeguards “are based on the NPT,” or the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Grossi said. Iran is still a signatory to the NPT, meaning that while Tehran has options for how to retaliate for the snapback, leaving the NPT is apparently one of them.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the decision to allow IAEA inspectors on-site was a move by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to ensure monitoring of the fuel replacement process in Bushehr. Araghchi denied a new deal for “new cooperation” between the IAEA and Iran.
Fallout from conflict continues
Iran and Israel have been escalating their conflict. Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, starting a 12-day war. Iran retaliated by attacking Israeli cities, and the US got involved in the last few days, with US forces striking three Iranian sites.
The IAEA evacuated their inspectors in July, citing the war conditions that make it impossible for the IAEA to monitor Iranian nuclear facilities. Satellite imagery in the following months showed apparent damage to entrances to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Research Center in Iran.
Iran has accused the IAEA of offering Israel “fig leaf” to strike the country’s nuclear facilities by “publicizing Iran’s non-compliance with the IAEA safeguard rules.”
Divisions appear inside Iran
Iran’s parliament passed the legislation to suspend cooperation with IAEA inspectors after the June conflict. At the time, lawmakers framed it as a retaliatory measure against foreign aggression and perceived bias on the part of IAEA inspectors.
Allowing IAEA inspectors back on-site into any facility in Iran is a decision that has prompted criticism at home. A member of Iran’s parliament, Kamran Ghazanfari, criticized comments from Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf that said there would be limited inspections allowed, as an “explicit violation” of the laws suspending cooperation with the agency.
European negotiators met with Iran in Geneva on Tuesday in a last-minute effort to stave off the snapback. But officials tell CNN little progress was made, and talks had collapsed before the June fighting started as well, when US envoy Steve Witkoff was engaged in negotiations to try to forge a new deal with Iran on their nuclear program.
Grossi is holding onto some hope that the next month could lead to de-escalation. “Don’t forget that there is still time, even if there is the triggering thing, there is a month and many things could happen,” he said.
For now, Iran is facing increasing pressure from both the West and inside the country over its nuclear program. Snapback is set to expire in October. The coming weeks may decide if diplomacy lives or if sanctions and confrontation are the next chapter of the Iran nuclear story.
